Will he take Washington in a new direction?

Executive Summary

The election of Donald J. Trump along with a Congress controlled by his Republican Party gives the incoming president an opportunity to move forward rapidly on several of his campaign pledges, including cutting taxes on individuals and businesses, rolling back the Affordable Care Act and increasing spending on infrastructure projects. The resolution of these issues will be closely watched by U.S. business leaders, along with Trump’s vows to cancel or renegotiate free-trade agreements and adopt more restrictive immigration policies.

Among the key takeaways:

  • The energy industry is likely to have freer rein to develop oil, gas and coal reserves and environmental restrictions probably will be relaxed.

  • Military contractors may enjoy a significant increase in defense spending.

  • The financial industry will be watching closely to see if Trump follows through on rolling back restrictions imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act.

Resources

Bibliography

Books

Galbraith, John Kenneth, “The Great Crash, 1929,” Houghton Mifflin, 1955. An economist’s history and examination of the factors that led to the U.S. stock market crash that precipitated the Great Depression.

Geithner, Timothy, “Stress Test,” Google Books, 2014. The former U.S. Treasury secretary writes of the financial crisis of 2008 that occurred during the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Sorkin, Andrew Ross, “Too Big to Fail,” Viking Press, 2009. A New York Times economic columnist offers a behind-the-scenes account of how the severe 2008 financial crisis developed into a global economic tsunami.

Trump, Donald, and Tony Schwartz, “The Art of the Deal,” Trump Publications, 1987. Donald Trump’s best-selling account of the business philosophies that he has followed and practices that led to his success as a real estate developer.

Articles

“The Long Demise of Glass-Steagall,” PBS Frontline, May 8, 2003, http://tinyurl.com/owk6j. The public television program provides a history of the federal banking regulations enacted following the stock market crash of 1929.

Baker, Dean, “The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Warnings From NAFTA,” Center for Economic and Policy Research, Jan. 20, 2014, http://tinyurl.com/zeurksz. An economist writes about what can be learned about a hemispheric trade treaty as a new Pacific Rim deal was being negotiated.

Cooper, David, “The Case for Raising the Minimum Wage,” U.S. News & World Report, May 10, 2013, http://tinyurl.com/ngprq2p. An expert argues in favor of raising the federal minimum wage.

George, Bill, “Why CEOs Need to Make a Better Case for Free Trade,” Fortune, Sept. 7, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/pldgq3j. A former CEO and current Harvard Business School fellow writes in support of free trade among the U.S. and other nations.

Lane, Sylvan, “Trump: I’d Undo Very Negative Force of Dodd-Frank,” The Hill, May 17, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/hqgb4wh. An account of Donald Trump’s comments that the federal financial regulations enacted after the last recession should be repealed.

Perry, Mark J., “Ten Reasons Economists Object to the Minimum Wage,” American Enterprise Institute, Dec. 8, 2015, http://tinyurl.com/prj325a. An economist makes the case for opposing any increase in the federal minimum wage.

Rubin, Richard, “Stashing $2.1 Trillion Overseas to Avoid Taxes,” Bloomberg News, March 4, 2015, http://tinyurl.com/pv2azxw. A journalist details the money that U.S. corporations have banked overseas to avert taxation at home.

Yergin, Daniel, “Congratulations, America. You’re (Almost) Energy Independent,” Politico Magazine, November 2013, http://tinyurl.com/hrcrem4. The energy industry expert outlines U.S. efforts to achieve independence from other nations in the production of energy.

Reports and Studies

“2013 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure,” American Society of Civil Engineers, http://tinyurl.com/yhskxo8. The association reports on the cost of repairing bridges, roads and other infrastructures in need of modernization.

“A Better Way,” Office of House Speaker Paul Ryan, http://tinyurl.com/hja6xat. House Speaker Paul Ryan provides a roadmap for his legislative initiatives.

“Historical Tables,” Office of Management and Budget, The White House, http://tinyurl.com/ntnzkb5. The White House provides an official accounting of the history of federal spending, deficits, debt and other data.

“International Trade in Goods and Services,” U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Nov. 4, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/yq8ubl. The government provides an official report on the value of U.S. imports and exports.

“Our Changing Climate: 2014 National Climate Assessment,” U.S. Global Change Research Program, http://tinyurl.com/jhtwuyd. A government program reports on the impact of climate change and solutions for stemming further warming.

“Positions,” Donald J. Trump for President, Inc., http://tinyurl.com/od6u7xy. The Trump campaign outlines the positions the candidate has taken in his campaign for president.

“The Trans-Pacific Partnership,” Office of the United States Trade Representative, http://tinyurl.com/payo6bs. The trade agency explains the deal that the U.S. has been negotiating with 11 other Pacific Rim nations.

“Updated Budget Projections: 2016 to 2026,” Congressional Budget Office, March 24, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/jpugo2v. Congress’s budget agency reports on projections for federal spending, deficits and debt in coming years.

Gleckman, Howard, “Latest Trump tax plan adds trillions to the national debt, Clinton plan trims deficits by taxing the wealthy,” Tax Policy Center, Oct. 11, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/zul9f7n. An expert examines the fiscal impact of Donald Trump’s economic proposals.

Krogstad, Jens Manuel, Jeffrey S. Passel and D’Vera Cohn, “5 facts about illegal immigration in the U.S.,” Pew Research Center, Nov. 3, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/hkqethg. An independent research center reports on undocumented immigration in the United States.

Maues, Julia, “Banking Act of 1933, commonly called Glass-Steagall,” U.S. Federal Reserve, Nov. 22, 2013, http://tinyurl.com/kqatywx. The Federal Reserve provides a history of federal banking regulation in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929.

The Next Step

Congressional Outlook

Cadei, Emily, “Republicans In Congress Promise Obamacare Repeal,” Newsweek, Nov. 9, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/ooa3jrg. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said repealing the Affordable Care Act is a top priority for congressional Republicans after Donald J. Trump’s inauguration.

Daly, Matthew, “New Congress: Minorities Gain but Still Overwhelmingly White,” The Associated Press, ABC News, Nov. 14, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/z3dq6xp. The 115th Congress will have a record number of minority women, including Democrats Kamala Harris of California and Tammy Duckworth of Illinois in the Senate and Stephanie Murphy of Florida in the House of Representatives.

Morgan, David, “Election over, Congress pivots to lame-duck debate over spending,” Reuters, Nov. 14, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/zrf9oeg. Lawmakers reconvening for the “lame-duck” session have to approve a new funding resolution before the current one expires in December.

Economic Plans

“Trump’s economic plan has caused a massive divergence in the market,” Business Insider, Nov. 15, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/hkbfbxh. The divergence between rising equity values and falling bond prices can be attributed to different markets focusing on different aspects of President-elect Donald J. Trump’s economic policy, experts say.

Abboud, Leila, and Brooke Sutherland, “Trump and Taxes,” Bloomberg, Nov. 9, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/zgkan8s. Donald J. Trump’s proposed tax plans involve reducing the corporate tax rate to 15 percent from the current 35 percent and giving companies a onetime 10 percent tax offer to bring all company interests back to the United States.

Ydstie, John, “Who Benefits From Donald Trump’s Tax Plan?” NPR, Nov. 13, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/hdake2f. Experts disagree about whether the middle class or the country’s top earners would benefit more from the president-elect’s tax agenda.

Immigration Agenda

Carcamo, Cindy, Kate Mather and Dakota Smith, “Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration leaves a lot unanswered for sanctuary cities like L.A.,” Los Angeles Times, Nov. 15, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/hl4loaq. Cities across the United States that offer legal “sanctuary” for undocumented immigrants face uncertain futures in the wake of the presidential election.

Otarola, Miguel, and Mila Koumpilova, “‘Constant fear’ as Latino immigrants brace for life under Trump,” Star Tribune, Nov. 14, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/hy4pn5g. President-elect Donald J. Trump’s vows to deport millions of immigrants and crack down on illegal immigration have sparked both fear and support in Minnesota communities.

Schultheis, Emily, “President-elect Trump says how many immigrants he’ll deport,” CBS News, Nov. 13, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/zagvehh. During his first postelection interview, with CBS’s “60 Minutes,” Donald J. Trump said he plans to immediately deport 2 million to 3 million undocumented immigrants with criminal records.

Trump Appointees

Holland, Steve, and Luciana Lopez, “Trump packs transition team with loyalists and family,” Reuters, Nov. 12, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/hrox36e. The president-elect’s transition team, led by Vice President-elect Mike Pence, is comprised of those advisers and politicians who remained loyal to the candidate throughout the presidential campaign.

Paletta, Damian, “Rudy Giuliani Says Defeating ISIS to Be Early Focus of Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy,” The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 14, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/j5cs7c8. Former New York City Mayor and Trump surrogate Rudy Giuliani suggested during an appearance that he would be interested in the position of secretary of State in the president-elect’s Cabinet.

Shear, Michael D., Maggie Haberman and Michael S. Schmidt, “Critics See Stephen Bannon, Trump’s Pick for Strategist, as Voice of Racism,” The New York Times, Nov. 14, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/h455vtw. President-elect Donald J. Trump’s appointment of Steve Bannon, former chief executive of the “alt-right” website Breitbart, as a chief strategist has drawn criticism over accusations of racism, nationalism and anti-Semitism.

Organizations

American Enterprise Institute
1789 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20036
202-862-5800
www.aei.org
A conservative-oriented think that researches and analyzes public policy issues.

Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20036
202-797-6210
www.brookings.edu
A centrist think tank that researches an array of public policy issues.

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
820 First St., N.E., Washington, DC 20002
202-408-1080
www.cbpp.org
An independent research group that analyzes tax and budgetary issues.

Center for Economic and Policy Research
1611 Connecticut Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20009
202-293-5380
www.cepr.net
A think tank that conducts economic and tax research and analysis.

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
1900 M St., N.W., Washington, DC 20036
202-596-3597
www.crfb.org
A nonprofit organization that advocates for federal budget reform.

Council on Foreign Relations
58 E. 68th St., New York, NY 10065
212-434-9400
www.cfr.org
A nonpartisan think tank that publishes global studies and analysis.

Democratic National Committee
4300 S. Capitol St., S.E., Washington, DC 20003
202-863-8000
www.democrats.org
The national organization of the Democratic Party.

Peter G. Peterson Foundation
1383 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10019
212-542-9200
www.pgpf.org
A nonpartisan organization that seeks budgetary reform and fiscal discipline.

Pew Research Center
1615 L St., N.W., Washington, DC 20036
202-419-4300
www.people-press.org
A nonpartisan group that researches public policy, with a specialty in immigration and media; also conducts independent public polling.

Republican National Committee
310 First St., S.E., Washington, DC 20003
202-863-8500
www.gop.com
The national organization of the Republican Party.

Tax Foundation
1325 G St., N.W., Washington, DC 20005
202 464 6200
www.taxfoundation.org
A nonprofit that analyzes federal tax policy and advocates for a simpler and fairer tax code.

Tax Policy Center
2100 M St., N.W., 4th Floor, Washington, DC 20037
202-833-7200
www.taxpolicycenter.org
A joint project of the Brookings Institution and Urban Institute that offers expert and impartial analysis on federal tax policy.

The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20500
202-456-1414
www.whitehouse.gov
Material on the president’s programs and priorities.

DOI: 10.1177/237455680223.n1